Storm Track

 

 

Snowfall Forecast

 

 3 Day Graphics for chances of 1", 4", 8", 12" of Snowfall
  Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
1" Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.
4"Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 4 inchesDay 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 4 inchesDay 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches
8"Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inchesDay 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inchesDay 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches
12"Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inchesDay 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inchesDay 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches

                          Snowfall Computer Models          
 GFS  NAM WRF
 24hr.   24 hr. 24hr. 
 48 hr. 48 hr. 48 hr. 
 60 hr. 60 hr. 
 84 hr. 84 hr. 
 120 hr.  
 144 hr.  
  GFS and NAM using the Detroit's Weather Office
 GFS Snowfall GFS Snowfall 10:1 ratio
 NAM Snowfall NAM Snowfall 10:1 ratio
Evan Kuchera algorithm NAM 24 hr  48 hr  84 hr
 06 and 018z GFS  24 Hour  48 Hour  120Hr  168 hr
 10:1 ratio  24 Hour  48 Hour   120 Hr    168 hr
 48 hours, (6 hr. segments) for MI from Weatherstreet
  Accum Snowfall Plots using Mr. Evan Kuchera algorithm 84hr tot
 Mr. Evan Kuchera  water/snow ratio times the amout of precip and this number for snowfall amt
DEX 8 Day total Snowfall            DEX 192 Hour Animate
 120 hours GFS  84 hours NAM  Precipt. Forecast

Snowfall Reports past 12 hours

Local Michigan Reports from CoCoRaHS     Daily Snowfall    Snowdepth   Individual List

Current Snow Depths across Michigan and the US

 Snow Depth Legend

Snow Depth Legend

  

US map below is "clickable" for each State


U.S. snow depth map

 

Current US Snowcover

 

Current US Wind Chill Map

 

Michigan 1-Day Snowfall
Michigan Current Snow Depth

 

Contiguous U.S. 1-Day Snowfall
Contiguous U.S. Current Snow Depth
 Climate Data
  Average Monthly Snowfall  
SNOWFALL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
DETROIT 12.5" 10.4" 6.9" 1.7" Trace 0" 0" 0" 0" 0.1" 1.4" 9.7"
FLINT13.1" 10.8" 6.5" 2.3" Trace 0" 0" 0" 0" 0.4" 2.5" 11.8"
SAGINAW11.9" 8.6" 6.4" 1.7" Trace 0" 0" 0" 0" 0.3" 3.6" 9.0"

                                            Average date of first measureable Snow

Saginaw.1" measurable1" or Greater 3" or Greater
Average Date November 15th.November 26th.December 27th.
Earliest DateOct. 12, 2006Oct. 24th. 1933Oct. 24th. 1933
Latest Date of First Occurrence.Dec. 20th. 1948Jan. 26th. 1948
 Average Date of Last Snow   
 Average date April 6 March 28 March 2nd.
 Earliest Date of Last Occurrence Feb. 11th., 1931 Jan. 21st.. 1917 -
 Latest Date May 20, 2002 May 9, 1923 May 9, 1923

2004 - 2005
2005 - 2006
2006 - 2007
2007 - 2008
2008 - 2009
2009 - 2010
2010 - 2011
2011 - 2012

2012 - 2013

2013 - 2014

Southeastern Michigan Winter Climate data

         Saginaw's Heaviest Snowstorms
RankDateAmount
1January 26-27, 196723.8
2January 26-27, 197822.5
3March 17,197321.3
4February 24-25, 196517.9
5December 19-20, 192916.9
6January 31-February 1,191416.9
7January 13-14,197916.1
8February 21,189815.0
9April 2-3,197514.4
10February 25,193513.5
11March 24-25,194713.3
12January 2-3, 199913.2
13April 29,190913.0
14November 6-7,195112.7
15February 12, 198512.6
16April 14-15,190412.5
17February 6,200812.0
18February 20,200512.0
19March 4th,198512.0
20December 27-28, 196812.0
21November 29-30,194011.9
22December 20,197111.5
23February 1-2, 201111.5
24January 9-10,199711.3
25November 2-3,196611.3
Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Seasons in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
RankDetroit Area*Flint Bishop**Saginaw Area***
SnowiestSnowlessSnowiestSnowlessSnowiestSnowless
TotalYearTotalYearTotalYearTotalYearTotalYearTotalYear
194.92013-201413.41936-193783.92013-201410.91921-192287.21966-19677.71941-1942
293.61880-188113.71948-194982.91974-197516.01944-194583.51951-195218.51976-1977
378.91925-192615.11881-188282.82007-200816.51948-194980.02007-200820.01952-1953
474.01981-198215.21918-191978.61966-196718.51932-193379.42008-200921.01920-1921
571.72007-200815.41965-196676.61975-197620.71936-193776.22010-201121.91963-1964
669.12010-201115.81889-189075.31951-195221.51943-194475.42004-200522.71948-1949
769.11899-190016.61952-195373.02004-200521.61933-193475.01996-199723.61918-1919
867.21929-193017.11968-196972.91964-196523.41952-195368.41995-199623.81982-1983
967.21907-190818.01960-196172.82008-200924.21957-195867.22000-200123.91916-1917
1065.72008-200918.01957-195872.12010-201124.41937-193865.81972-197324.31943-1944
1163.82004-200520.01982-198369.02015-201628.21939-194063.01971-197224.51932-1933
1263.11974-197520.91945-194664.91925-192628.31997-199862.21984-198525.01986-1987
1361.71977-197822.81943-194463.41929-193028.41931-193261.91964-196525.11944-1945
1461.61884-188523.01888-188962.91972-197328.61968-196960.61947-194825.61983-1984
1560.92002-200323.41997-199862.21981-198228.71941-194260.32013-201426.11921-1922
1660.21898-189923.71999-200061.51958-195928.91924-192557.01929-193026.51927-1928
1760.01922-192323.81937-193860.11959-196029.51999-200056.31975-197626.91993-1994
1859.91892-189324.12003-200455.92005-200629.51988-198956.02001-200227.51979-1980
1958.61951-195224.81941-194255.41989-199030.51928-192955.91978-197927.51912-1913
2058.51911-191225.11988-198955.01969-197031.31956-195755.61977-197828.31926-1927
* Detroit Area snowfall records date back to January 1880.
** Flint Bishop snowfall records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area snowfall records date back to January 1912.

Combining The Winter Months of December, January, February

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Winters in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
RankDetroit Area*Flint Bishop**Saginaw Area***
ColdestWarmestColdestWarmestColdestWarmest
TempYearTempYearTempYearTempYearTempYearTempYear
118.81903-190436.91881-188216.71976-197733.41931-193215.71962-196333.31931-1932
219.31874-187535.71931-193217.01962-196333.02015-201616.51917-191831.72015-2016
319.71976-197735.21889-189017.81958-195932.21982-198316.61919-192030.91997-1998
419.71917-191833.82001-200218.61978-197931.72001-200217.51978-197930.62011-2012
520.41962-196333.81997-199819.02013-201431.31997-199818.01977-197830.52001-2002
620.61977-197833.52015-201619.31977-197831.22011-201218.21976-197730.01936-1937
720.81919-192033.02011-201219.81993-199430.31932-193318.22013-201429.61982-1983
820.92013-201432.51982-198319.91944-194529.11952-195318.21958-195929.51920-1921
921.01935-193632.51879-188020.91981-198228.81936-193718.71935-193629.01918-1919
1021.11892-189332.31918-191921.21935-193628.61948-194919.01993-199428.81932-1933
1121.41904-190532.21952-195321.31969-197028.52012-201319.21916-191728.52012-2013
1221.51978-197931.61877-187821.41985-198628.31930-193120.01961-196228.31952-1953
1321.71880-188131.31948-194921.51961-196228.21991-199220.11944-194528.01930-1931
1421.81911-191231.21920-192121.62008-200928.21949-195020.21969-197027.81974-1975
1521.81878-187931.11875-187621.61983-198428.11974-197520.31981-198227.61948-1949
1621.91981-198231.01953-195421.61947-194828.01953-195420.71947-194827.21998-1999
1722.41969-197030.81949-195022.02014-201527.81998-199921.22008-200927.11986-1987
1823.01958-195930.72012-201322.22010-201127.71986-198721.32002-200327.11953-1954
1923.21876-187730.61932-193322.41942-194327.71940-194121.41942-194327.01991-1992
2023.32014-201530.51905-190622.52002-200327.61938-193921.61985-198626.81959-1960
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to November 1874.
** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

  Winter Weather Terminolgy

Watch Product Name

 Description

Blizzard Watch

Conditions are favorable for (i.e., there is the potential for) a blizzard event to meet or exceed Blizzard Warning criteria

Lake Effect Snow Watch

Conditions are favorable for (i.e., there is the potential for) a lake effect snow event to meet or exceed local Lake Effect Snow Warning criteria

Wind Chill Watch

Conditions are favorable for (i.e., there is the potential for) wind chill temperatures to meet or exceed local Wind Chill Warning criteria

Winter Storm Watch

Conditions are favorable for (i.e., there is the potential for) a winter storm event (Heavy Sleet, Heavy Snow, Ice Storm, Heavy Snow and Blowing Snow or a combination of events) to meet or exceed local Winter Storm Warning criteria.

Warning Product Name

 Description

Blizzard Warning

Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more.

Lake Effect Snow Warning

Widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy showers which produce snowfall accumulation meeting or exceeding locally defined warning criteria. Lake Effect Snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited area within a zone(s).

Ice Storm Warning

Ice accumulation meeting or exceeding locally defined warning criteria, typical value is 1/4 inch or more

Wind Chill Warning

Wind chill temperatures reaching or exceeding locally defined warning criteria, typical value is -18°F or colder

Winter Storm Warning

Snow, ice, or sleet meeting or exceeding locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour warning criteria or
combination of snow, ice, or sleet and blowing snow with at least one of the precipitation elements meeting or exceeding locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour warning criteria.

Extreme Cold Warning
(NPW Product)

Operational in Alaska only. When forecast to occur for at least three consecutive days: Shelter temperature of -50°F or colder and air temperature remains below -40°F up to the 700-mb level.

Advisory Product Name

 Description

Freezing Rain Advisory

Light ice accumulation (freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle) meeting or exceeding locally defined advisory criteria, but remaining below warning criteria.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory

Widespread or localized lake effect snowfall accumulation (and blowing snow as appropriate) reaching or exceeding locally defined advisory criteria, but remaining below warning criteria.

Wind Chill Advisory

Wind chill temperatures reaching or exceeding locally defined advisory criteria, but remaining below warning criteria.

Winter Weather Advisory

Winter weather event having one or more hazards (i.e., snow, snow and blowing snow, snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice and sleet) meeting or exceeding locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria.

NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS:
KNOW YOUR WINTER WEATHER TERMS

NOAA's National Weather Service urges residents to keep abreast of local forecasts and warnings and familiarize themselves with key weather terminology.

Winter Storm Warning: Issued when hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet is imminent or occurring. Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued 12 to 24 hours before the event is expected to begin.

Winter Storm Watch: Alerts the public to the possibility of a blizzard, heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter Storm Watches are usually issued 12 to 48 hours before the beginning of a Winter Storm.

Winter Storm Outlook: Issued prior to a Winter Storm Watch. The Outlook is given when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible and are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm.

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

Lake Effect Snow Warning: Issued when heavy lake effect snow is imminent or occurring.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory: Issued when accumulation of lake effect snow will cause significant inconvenience.

Wind Chill Warning: Issued when wind chill temperatures are expected to be hazardous to life within several minutes of exposure.

Wind Chill Advisory: Issued when wind chill temperatures are expected to be a significant inconvenience to life with prolonged exposure, and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to hazardous exposure.

Winter Weather Advisories: Issued for accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet which will cause significant inconveniences and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to life-threatening situations.

Dense Fog Advisory: Issued when fog will reduce visibility to ¼ mile or less over a widespread area.

Snow Flurries: Light snow falling for short durations. No accumulation or light dusting is all that is expected.

Snow Showers: Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible.

Snow Squalls: Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. Snow squalls are best known in the Great Lakes region.

Blowing Snow: Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility and causes significant drifting. Blowing snow may be snow that is falling and/or loose snow on the ground picked up by the wind.

Sleet: Rain drops that freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects. However, it can accumulate like snow and cause a hazard to motorists.

Freezing Rain: Rain that falls onto a surface with a temperature below freezing. This causes it to freeze to surfaces, such as trees, cars, and roads, forming a coating or glaze of ice. Even small accumulations of ice can cause a significant hazard.

October 2001